Assembly Elections 2012 Exit Poll & Opinion Poll

Opinion Polls for Assembly Elections 2012

Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur will go to polls in 2012 and the exit polls and opinion poll results have started coming in already. Outcome of the Assembly elections in these states may or may not depend on these polls but it does give an indication of what is happening in these states.

3rd Feb: Opinion Poll By Star News-Nielsen for Uttar Pradesh

On 3rd Feb, Star News announced the second opinion poll for Uttar Pradesh elections. It says that BJP will fare ever worse than what was predicted in Dec. According to the survey, BSP will get 101 seats, SP will emerge front runner with 135 seats, Congress will come 3rd with 79 seats and BJP will end 4th with just 61 seats. Congress ally RLD will get 20 seats.

16th Dec Poll: The first opinion-exit polls has come in from Star news-Nielsen. They have predicted that SP will be the front runner in the 2012 UP elections and BSP will suffer a major setback. Congress is shown as improving a lot in several areas despite spate of scam and corruption cases against its ministers. Mayawati's plan of dividing UP in 4 different states found a lot of support in public, especially in the areas of Purvanchal, but according to Star News, it is not goig to translate into votes for the party.

Overall the Opinion Poll suggests a coalition Govt in UP. Star News says BSP will get 120 seats (-86), SP 135 seats (+38), Congress 68 (+46) and BJP 65 (+14).

Here's the opinion poll results for UP according to the 4 proposed states:

Bundelkhand (19 Seats)

Awadh (63 Seats)

Paschim Pradesh (145 Seats)

Purvanchal (176 Seats)

23rd Jan: Punjab Survey for 2012 Elections

Punjab Survey conducted by Star News for 2012 Assembly elections suggest that Congress is going to stage a comeback in Punjab. The opinion poll gives Congress a massive boost by predicting that they will gain 19 seats since 2007 elections. BJP-Akali Dal combine is shown to lose 15 seats and end up on just 53 seats. Earlier, a poll by India Today-ORG had also predicted almost similar results in Punjab.

23rd Jan: Opinion Poll By Star News-Nielsen for Uttarakhand

Star News opinion poll for Uttarakhand shows that BJP is on its way back in Uttarakhand. It shows that BJP is set to gain 4 more seats from last time and win 39 seats but Congress is said to have even better gain of 8 seats, but it will still fall short and end with 29 seats only. There s only 1% vote difference between COngress and BJP as sugested by this poll, so the actual results can be vastly different from what is predicted here.

Assembly Elections of 2012:

In 2012, 6 Indian states are scheduled to go for Assembly polls. They are Punjab, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.

2009 Assembly elections Exit-Opinion Polls and 2010 State election Opinion Polls