Exit Polls, Opinions and Surveys for 2009 Elections in India

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Election 09 at a Glance
mini The polls of 2009 will mark the 15th Lok Sabha Electionmini Voting scheduled from Apr 16th to May 13th, with Results on May 16thmini 714 million voters, 43m more than elections of 2004mini 8,28,804 polling stations, 1.36m EVMs, 4m civic officials, 2.1m security officialsmini Photo electoral rolls to be used for first time in 522 of total 543 constituenciesmini Total expenditure estimated to be around Rs. 10,000 croremini A polling booth in the interiors of Gir forest in Junagadh has one votermini In Chhattisgarh, one polling booth has been made for just two votersmini In Arunachal Pradesh, three booths have been made for three voters each


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India mini .gifGeneral Elections mini .gifIndia 2009 Exit Polls

Exit Polls and Surveys for India Elections 2009

16th May '2009: Our Website Poll

We asked you:Who will form the next Government?

Results:

Congress led UPA(52.2 %)
BJP led NDA(38.5 %)
Third Front(6.6 %)
Hopefully None!(2.7 %)

Total votes: 10219

13th May '2009: Exit Polls by Major Tv Channels:

The real fun begins now. WIth after a month of intense speculations and opinion polls, here comes the next best thing to actual results on 16th - the exit polls for all 543 seats from different News Channels. Although, almost all show a Congress lead, but BJP is shown to lag not far behind. In this neck and neck race, wait till the 16th of May to checkout the real big picture.

You can view more details on the final India exit polls here.

Coalition Performance

BJP + NDA Allies

Congress + UPA Allies

Third Front

Others & Ind

Star News 196 199 100 36
CNN-IBN 135-150 145-160 110-130 70-100
Times Now 183 198 - 162
Headlines Today 180 191 38 134
India Tv 194 195 108 46
News X 191 199 104 48
UTVi 189 195 - 14
Mumbai Satta Bazar 190-200 160-180 - -
Gujarat Satta Bazar 200 270 - -
Rajasthan Satta Bazar 125 145 - -
Congress (own survey) 168 205 - 164
BJP (own survey) 220 170 - 153

6th May - Times of India Result estimates after Phase Three:

Times of India suggests that BJP led NDA is catching up fast with its latest seat estimate for the elections. As compared to 176 in the last polls of 10th April, it now gives NDA an edge with 187 seats, just 8 behind the Congress led UPA. If you look at the figures closely, you'd realise the irony - just three Indian states basically decide the fate of this Lok Sabha: Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. It is well clear that neither BJP nor Congress led coalitions yet seem to be in a position to form the Govt on their own. The others and third front get majority of its seats from these three states, and they are the one's who'd decide who forms the next Govt.

Coalition Performance

Congress + UPA Allies

195
(198)

BJP + NDA Allies

187
(176)

Third Front

111
(109)

Others & Ind

50
(60)

State/UT

Cong

UPA Allies

BJP

NDA Allies

Left

Others

Total

Uttar Pradesh 13 0 14 3 0 50 80
Maharashtra 12 11 13 12 0 0 48
Andhra Pradesh 15 1 0 0 2 24 42
West Bengal 5 11 1 0 24 1 42
Bihar 3 1 10 19 1 6 40
Tamil Nadu 4 7 1 0 4 23 39
Madhya Pradesh 6 0 23 0 0 0 29
Karnataka 9 0 16 0 0 3 28
Gujarat 7 0 19 0 0 0 26
Rajasthan 12 0 11 0 0 2 25
Orissa 9 0 4 0 0 8 21
Kerala 12 3 0 0 5 0 20
Assam 5 1 4 3 0 1 14
Jharkhand 2 2 8 0 0 2 14
Punjab 9 0 1 3 0 0 13
Chhattisgarh 3 0 8 0 0 0 11
Haryana 6 0 2 1 0 1 10
Delhi 6 0 1 0 0 0 7
J & K 2 3 1 0 0 0 6
Uttarakhand 2 0 3 0 0 0 5
Himachal 1 0 3 0 0 0 4
Arunachal 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
Goa 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
Manipur 2 0 0 0 0 0 2
Meghalaya 1 1 0 0 0 0 2
Tripura 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Mizoram 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Nagaland 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Andaman-Nicobar 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Dadra Nagar Haveli 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Daman & Diu 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Lakshadweep 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Puducherry 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Total 152 43 145 42 38 123 543

5th May - 2009 BJP's internal survey:

Source: Times of India

BJP feels that after three phases of elections, it has the initiative over its rival Congress. It's internal survey after phase 3 indicates that it is expecting at least 23 of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh. Its projections for Gujarat are in the 18-20 range, of a total of 26 seats. In Maharashtra BJP expects to win 26 of the 48 seats on offer. BJP is also expecting 15 seats in UP west. However, in case of Rajasthan, BJP feels it has a 15:10 projection in favour of the Congress.


7th May: Fourth Phase Voting Analysis

30th April: Phase 3 Opinions by Indian Express.

23rd April: Check here how Second Phase Polls went.

16th April: Check here for First Phase Poll Opinions.

11th April:

Star News - Nielsen Opinion Polls:

Star News & Nielsen came out with their second opinion polls, made from data collected till 3rd of April. It must be kept in mind that a week has since passed and recent activities, such as the shoe throwing incident, removal of Jagdish ytler and Sajjan Kumar from contest, etc are bound to have some impact. However, one thing strikes out and that is that today's poll compares similar to the poll by Times of India which came out on 10th April(shown below). Both show Congress getting near to 155 seats and overall tally of UPA to be around 200 seats.

As compared from it's own previous poll on 23rd March, Star News-Nielsen shows a slight decline in the numbers of UPA, although individual tally of Congress is showed to increase from 144 to 155. In comparison, NDA is set to increase it's tally, mainly because of increase in seats to the BJP, from being at 137 to now 147. The third front, although still going no where, is said to increase its tally from 96 to 104.

Party Symbol
Political Coalition Name
Seats Predicted
INC
UPA
Cong: 155, DMK: 15, TMC: 13, NCP: 11, JMM: 2, NC:2, MUL: 2, RPI: 1, AMIMIM: 1, KEC(M): 1, RPA(A): 1
203
BJP
NDA
BJP: 147, JD U: 22, Shiv Sena: 9, RLD: 3, SAD: 5, AGP: 4, INLD: 1
191
<empty>CPI-M
3rd Front
BSP: 26, CPI-M: 25, TDP: 13, AIADMK: 9, BJD: 9, JD S+CPI+ Forward Block+RSP+TRS+HJC: 23
104
INC
4th Front
SP: 28, RJD:6, LJP: 4, Praja Rajyam: 1
39

 

10th April '2009:

Times of India Election Poll

Times of India's latest India 2009 election assessment suggests Congress is best placed to form the next Government in India. It shows BJP and the Left loosing a lot of ground. BJP's loss in seats can be attributed to Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janta Dal moving out. The current India 2009 exit poll, if it may be called that, suggests that the Congress is looking to gain in Punjab and Haryana. However, one must keep in mind that the shoe thrown at the Finance Minister earlier this week, and after these polls were recorded, has changed a lot of perspective in the minds of the Sikh population, and is sure to hamper the overall tally of the Congress.

State/UT

Cong

UPA Allies

BJP

NDA Allies

Left

Others

Total

Uttar Pradesh 8 0 7 3 0 62 80
Maharashtra 14 12 10 12 0 0 48
Andhra Pradesh 21 1 1 0 2 17 42
West Bengal 5 12 1 0 24 0 42
Bihar 1 0 10 18 0 11 40
Tamil Nadu 5 9 0 0 2 23 39
Madhya Pradesh 7 0 22 0 0 0 29
Karnataka 8 0 17 0 0 3 28
Gujarat 7 0 19 0 0 0 26
Rajasthan 13 0 11 0 0 1 25
Orissa 7 0 3 0 0 11 21
Kerala 12 3 0 0 5 0 20
Assam 5 0 4 3 0 2 14
Jharkhand 3 2 9 0 0 0 14
Punjab 7 0 2 4 0 0 13
Chhattisgarh 4 0 7 0 0 0 11
Haryana 7 0 1 1 0 1 10
Delhi 5 0 2 0 0 0 7
J & K 2 3 1 0 0 0 6
Uttarakhand 1 0 4 0 0 0 5
Himachal 2 0 2 0 0 0 4
Arunachal 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
Goa 1 0 1 0 0 0 2
Manipur 1 0 0 0 0 1 2
Meghalaya 1 1 0 0 0 0 2
Tripura 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Mizoram 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Nagaland 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Andaman-Nicobar 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Dadra Nagar Haveli 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Puducherry 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Total 154 44 135 41 35 134 543
Entries Per Page
Displaying Page of

Party Symbol
Political Coalition Name
Seats Predicted
INC
UPA (excluding SP, RJD & LJP)
198
BJP
NDA
176
<empty>CPI-M
Third Front
BSP: 33, AIADMK+MDMK+PMK: 23, TDP+TRS: 15, JD-S: 3
109
Others
Others & Independents
SP: 29, RJD+LJP: 11, BJD: 11, Praja Rajyam: 2, AUDF: 1, SDF: 1, NPF: 1, MPP: 1, HJC: 1, Ind: 2
60

27th March '2009:

BJP's Internal Survey

BJP's internal survey suggests that it's set to benefit from the shrinking poll pacts of the Congress, but the margin is going to be very less. While t predicts 135 seats for the Congress, it came up with just 160 seats for self. While Congress is said to benefit in 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh, BJP itself is banking on Uttar Pradesh, with around 20 seats in UP.

BJP's own survey, however, places it 50 less of a majority at total seats of 217 when the election results come out on May 16th. But the UPA is placed even lower at just 180 seats. This clearly suggests giving an edge to the third front for after poll alliances.

23rd March '2009:

Star News-Nielsen 2009 Election Survey

One of the first surveys to come out for the Lok Sabha polls, the Star News-Nielsen survey, predicts that the Congress led UPA could win upto 257 Lok sabha seats. The BJP led coalition is predicted to achieve 184 seats, while the third front will remain third with 96 seats. For a clean majority, an alliance would need 272 seats, so as per this survey, UPA would be left short by 15 seats.

However, the UPA tally includes the now estranged allies and current UPA partners, Samajwadi Party, LJP and RJD. If the numbers for these three are reduced, the UPA led alliance will be reduced to 210. Although, as per comon perception, no matter how many differences occur between the Congress and these three parties, if after the election Congress requires thier support to form the Govt, they'd surely get it in the name of forming a "secular Government". Many believe the current tactics by RJD, LJP and SP as arm twisting measures, so that after the elections, if UPA wins, they can achieve a lot more than their due recognitions.

A lot of time is still left for the elections to start, and newer poll alliances and break-ups will change the current tallies for sure.

Results of the Star News-Nielsen India 2009 Election Exit Polls Survey are:

Party Symbol
Political Coalition Name
Seats Predicted
INC
UPA (including SP, RJD & LJP)
Cong: 144, SP: 30, DMK: 24, TMC: 13, NCP: 13, RJD: 11, LJP: 6, JMM: 4, IUML:3, JKN: 2, RPI: 2, PMK: 1, SDF: 1, KEC: 1, NLP: 1
257
INC
UPA (excluding SP, RJD & LJP)
SP: 30, RJD:11, LJP: 6
210
BJP
NDA
BJP: 137, JD U: 16, Shiv Sena: 12, RLD: 6, SAD: 6, AGP: 6, INLD: 1
184
<empty>CPI-M
3rd Front
CPM: 25, BSP: 21, TDP: 14, AIADMK: 9, BJD: 9, JD S: 5, CPI: 3, Forward Block: 3, RSP: 3, TRS: 3, HJC: 1
96

The 2009 India Elections Map:

Mouse-over on the respective state names to know the election dates in that state. Click on the state names for more news.

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